- March 23, 2022
- 10.00AM To 2.00PM
Forecasting and Optimization
Module 1
Forecasting & Optimization overview and developing basic Forecasting using Optimization method in Excel
23rd March, 10:00 AM – 2:00 PM
Module 2
Understanding and developing advanced Forecasting models (SES, DES, TES, ARIMA) using R studio
24th March, 10:00 AM – 2:00 PM
Overview
Artificial intelligence (AI) has seen rapid adoption in recent years and Forecasting & Optimization is an important pillar of the AI umbrella. None of the industries can now afford to miss the application & the power of Forecasting & Optimization. It plays a significant role in making effective & informed business decisions and developing data-driven strategies. Visibility into possible trends and changes assists firms in determining where and how much to spend on their budget. Generating better forecasts becomes crucial as it can help the companies in assessing overall performance, budgeting, risk management, and cost reduction. Forecasting & Optimization can be implemented for various domains – CPG, Consumer Electronics, Media & Studio, Finance, Logistics Call Centre industry, Travel Industry, Spare parts industry etc.
Module 1
In this workshop, we will understand what Forecasting & Optimization is. We will go through the use and application of Forecasting & Optimization to solve real industry problems. We will detail out on how to implement simple forecasting technique using optimization method in Excel. We will also discuss one of the key performance metrics for the validation of the model built.
Program Objectives
- Why and How: Overview of Forecasting & Optimization
- Understanding the importance and power of Forecasting and Optimization.
- Walkthrough a couple of use cases employing Forecasting and Optimization in industries
- Understanding RMSE to arrive at a performance metric
- Simple forecasting techniques using optimization method in excel.
- Difference between SES and DES forecasting techniques
Learning Outcomes
- Gain understanding around the WHY and HOW of the Forecasting and Optimization framework.
- Gain understanding around the use and power of Forecasting and Optimization.
- Learn to use excel and basic optimization to arrive at a basic Forecasting model (SES).
- Learn about RMSE – a key performance indicator/metric for the model built.
Workshop Schedule
- Theoretical understanding on WHY and HOW of Forecasting and Optimization.
- Hands-on Implementation of a technique (Single Exponential Smoothing) from scratch in excel framework to understand the crux of the methodology.
- Discussion on difference between SES and DES forecasting techniques
Module 2
In this workshop, we will understand the forecasting techniques like DES, TES and ARIMA. We will use R -studio to implement forecasting techniques like DES, TES and ARIMA. We will give detailed view on various performance metrics to be considered for the validation of forecasting output. We would help you understand the importance of optimization to connect the forecasting output with that of the actual business problem.
Program Objectives
- Understanding of TES and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average)
- Hands on implementation of SES, DES, TES, ARIMA techniques using R studio.
- Understanding various performance techniques (MAPE, MAE, WAPE, RMSE, R-Square etc.) to arrive at the best techniques from a pool of large no. of techniques.
- Understanding the connections between Forecasting/other ML techniques with that of Optimization.
Learning Outcomes
- Learn about the difference between Correlation and Partial Correlation.
- Learn to use R- programming to implement basic and advanced techniques like ARIMA.
- Learn to use various performance metrics to arrive at a forecasting model. Learn about difference between these metrics – MAPE/MAE/RMSE/WAPE/R-Square
- Learn about the connections and use of Forecasting outputs with that of Optimization.
Workshop Schedule
- Theoretical understanding of TES and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average)
- Hands-on implementation of TES and ARIMA using R studio
- Various performance metrics used
- Understanding the use of Optimization using outputs from forecasting (as well as other ML techniques)
Mandatory Prerequisite
Installation of R -Studio is Mandatory. Please make sure you have a strong internet connection to ensure optimal experience.